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Sci Rep ; 11(1): 18093, 2021 09 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1402128

ABSTRACT

Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) bear disproportionate burden of COVID-19 and are prioritized for vaccine deployment. LTCF outbreaks could continue occurring during vaccine rollout due to incomplete population coverage, and the effect of vaccines on viral transmission are currently unknown. Declining adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against within-facility transmission could therefore limit the effectiveness of vaccination. We built a stochastic model to simulate outbreaks in LTCF populations with differing vaccination coverage and NPI adherence to evaluate their interacting effects. Vaccination combined with strong NPI adherence produced the least morbidity and mortality. Healthcare worker vaccination improved outcomes in unvaccinated LTCF residents but was less impactful with declining NPI adherence. To prevent further illness and deaths, there is a continued need for NPIs in LTCFs during vaccine rollout.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/therapeutic use , COVID-19/prevention & control , Long-Term Care , Models, Theoretical , Vaccination Coverage , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Health Facilities , Humans , Vaccination
2.
PLoS One ; 16(9): e0253407, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1398926

ABSTRACT

Surveillance testing for infectious disease is an important tool to combat disease transmission at the population level. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, RT-PCR tests have been considered the gold standard due to their high sensitivity and specificity. However, RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 have been shown to return positive results when performed to individuals who are past the infectious stage of the disease. Meanwhile, antigen-based tests are often treated as a less accurate substitute for RT-PCR, however, new evidence suggests they may better reflect infectiousness. Consequently, the two test types may each be most optimally deployed in different settings. Here, we present an epidemiological model with surveillance testing and coordinated isolation in two congregate living settings (a nursing home and a university dormitory system) that considers test metrics with respect to viral culture, a proxy for infectiousness. Simulations show that antigen-based surveillance testing coupled with isolation greatly reduces disease burden and carries a lower economic cost than RT-PCR-based strategies. Antigen and RT-PCR tests perform different functions toward the goal of reducing infectious disease burden and should be used accordingly.


Subject(s)
Antigens, Viral/immunology , COVID-19 Serological Testing/methods , COVID-19/diagnosis , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , COVID-19/virology , False Negative Reactions , False Positive Reactions , Humans , Immunologic Surveillance/immunology , Nursing Homes , Pandemics/prevention & control , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction/methods , Sensitivity and Specificity , Universities
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